Why Libor fixing is more than money

I had a twitter exchange with a young man who felt sure that the fixing was limited to the 14 bad boys on the Barclay’s trading floor. I argued that it was highly unlikely and was like the fig leaf of ‘one rogue reporter’ that we all had to swallow for a while.  He reckoned I was wrong.

However the LIBOR fixing turns out, and however many more are implicated, the important issue centres not on the money (well, not solely on the money).  It is the dishonesty.

I have been known to rant about the system that brought us the subprime mess and collateralised debt objects. The lack of scrutiny and the light touch regulation that allowed the liberalisation of the financial markets that brought us to the brink with Lehman Brothers.
However, at its core, I still held to the belief that the main problem was greed. Good old-fashioned pocket-filling greed. You know, nose in the trough profiteering and massively over-inflated bonuses.  A Gordon Gecko Wall-st ‘Greed is good’ kind of thing.
I was wrong.

LIBOR rates are used in approximately $800 billion   trillion of financial instruments and messing with these is fraud on a massive scale.  The courts will be busy with claims and cases over this for the next decade.  The perpetrators should  be found and punished on a scale comparable with the hunt for Bin Laden but we all know they wont be.
The fixing of LIBOR  by Barclay’s (I’m sure they won’t be alone) is the game changer.  In the same way as Milly Dowler changed the press game irrevocably.
They aren’t greedy (well they are) but they have also been found out as dishonest.

Honesty which needs to be at the heart of the system, an honesty that has been found to be an illusion. The British Bankers of the past, whose reputations were built on integrity, probity and trustworthiness, will be spinning in their collective graves.  Trust once broken takes a long time to be recovered if it ever, actually, is.

The reputation of British banks has been dragged through the mire damaging much of UK PLC’s future income and its standing in the world.

Add to this ‘bad behaviour’ the mis-selling of PPI and other little gems (dodgy tax avoidance schemes for example) and we get a pattern of dishonesty not just a one-off (or a Madoff – sorry).  A pattern of behaviour that renders the game a bogey.  Bob Diamond was sorry.  Sorry they got caught?  Certainly not sorry to have pocketed £100m over the last five years.

The pathetic attempts to justify the dishonesty and misreporting of LIBOR by Barclay’s and the subsequent use of  ‘Big boys made us do it’ by Bob Diamond and his chums just highlights part of the problem.  The fact that the political establishment are embroiled in this mess isn’t shocking to anyone.  It is almost a given.  Afterall they have been involved in everything else recently.

The political classes are mired in their own mess ( expenses scandals, links with the press, donations), the press are curled up in a post #hackgate ball, the churches are continually being sued and now we find out the banks are not just greedy hogs but they are lying, robbing hogs.

The roof of our societal institutions is falling in.

With this in mind, who do we expect (or accept) to hold the banks to account?  Another #Leveson and Mr Jay?  Anything less will be a whitewash or politically tarnished.

Dave (By the way) is terrified at the thought.

Is Ed our IDS?

This is a sure sign of too much time on my hands.

To worry about the possibility of Ed Miliband, our leader of just over a year, not making it to the next General Election exposes an underlying unease.

I didn’t vote for Ed and he wasn’t even my second or third choice.

That said, democracy is about accepting the outcome and I have.

Ed has had a hard slog this year and leader of the opposition isn’t a great gig for anyone at the start – you have to grow into it.  Dave-call-me-dave was pretty mince to begin with and look how that turned out. (failed to win a majority with Ashcroft’s millions, media support and a Labour government on its knees – ooops sorry I digress).

Being leader of our party is a bit like herding cats, you really have no chance of instilling any discipline until you gain a profile that looks like you might win the next election.  At the moment Ed doesn’t have that.

The polls put him in the lead by about 3-9% routinely, which sounds fine but when you consider the savaging the country is taking from giddernomics and this coalition it should be much more.  It seems the voters aren’t yet sure.  Punishing Clegg and the Libdems apparently just not sure about us.

He started slowly but with the right idea of accepting where we went wrong in government.  However, he needed to defend what we did right more robustly.  Outcome of this was to irritate our own supporters and get a grudging ‘about blooming time’ from those who might have supported us once, and a’ TOLD you’ screamed from those who opposed us and always will.  Guess whose voice got heard on that one eh?

Had a refounding Labour review.  Not at all convinced this will do what he hopes – (see herding cats above).

Bumbled along a bit until #hackgate came along and it was at this point my opinion changed of his chances (up until this point I did think he was our IDS).  He did very well on this, got the tone right, held dave to account and didn’t look like an opportunist (too much).  The corner was well and truly turned.

Riots came and went and the momentum was with Ed on looking the part.  This carried on through the worsening Eurozone mess as he landed good blows on the hopelessly out of touch complacent Cameron.  All going well then.

However, this has stalled for me on the public sector pensions issue and the day of action that allowed Dave to make him look weak and say so.  This was a big call and I think Ed has found himself stuck in a politicians dilemma.  Wanting (i hope) to support the action but knowing it will be used as a club to beat him with.  2m workers gave up a days pay to protest and he didn’t support them.

If he had said I support your day of action and blame this intransigent government for causing it, I think he’d have been a shoe in to really make some progress.  He didn’t, he allowed the right-wing media to portray the Public sector as enemies of the state and was too careful about his response.

November 30th was my first ever day on strike and I want my party leader to support our struggle.  His questions at PMQ’s weren’t bad but for me it was too little too late.  The safe political reasonableness that is for the south of England is alienating traditional labour voters (and there are many of us).

Clarkson and the right-wing are winning the media battle on pensions and we need Ed to be more robust and combat at every turn their misinformation and drivel.  It aint happening.

Which brings me to my question.  Is he going to be our IDS?

Perhaps, he’s not blowing my skirt up and if he makes too many judgement errors I think he will be.

If he keeps getting spanked by Flashman at #PMQs then he will be.

If he doesn’t get some economic credibility (which considering Gidders et al) he will be.

If the cuts are weakly opposed he will be.

Ed is a genuinely decent chap, personable, articulate and bright.  Is that going to be enough or will regret that he isn’t his brother always dog his steps?

So Ed =IDS?  Not yet, and I hope never or we will be in opposition for a looong time.

Of course my next question is ‘IF not Ed Miliband then who?’

Truth & reconciliation committee needed?

In using the above phrase, in no way am I likening #Hackgate and the behaviour of our media to the system of apartheid in South Africa.

The process however might be the only way to get to the bottom of this whole fiasco.

I listened to @tom_watson last night at a fundraising dinner and was instantly struck by the need to get #hackgate resolved.

There will be a stream of ex-journalists and private investigators arrested and charged in the weeks and months to come as #levenson enquiry digs and digs and digs.

The light of truth (not to be confused with the rope of truth) will shine into the murkiest corners of the activities of some of the media.

The Fallout will be far-reaching and will take years to resolve, at huge expense I am sure.

Should we then draw a line under this mess and have an amnesty to get the truth and scale of what wa going on?  Maybe, but there are still a few players who need to be dealt with before then.

Andy Coulson, it is alleged, brought phone hacking to the #NOTW, he should at least face the music.  Many more will be stuck in the dock beside him and rightly so.

Milly Dowler, the McCanns and countless others need to see and feel justice being done.

But then what?

If people fear that they will be punished, they’ll keep schtumm and we’ll never know the full extent.  The press is being exposed as having run amok with no regard for privacy or decency and now they are needing to pay the piper.

Now we have the national security implications of Peter Hain having his computer hacked by journalists and the whole game has ramped up a level.

The key actors will need to be punished before we will be ready to let this move on.  After that a committee might be the best option.

A no-prosecution amnesty and fulsome apology with cash might be sufficient for the foot soldier types.  The generals behind this will need to face the full force of the law.

Coulson, brooks and Murdoch (either or both) need to be brought to book.  They have been seen to be less than forthright in their responses

And that brings me neatly to the Prime minister, ‘He didn’t ask and didn’t know’, when this is scotched and exposed as the least credible statement on the matter, he will need to go.  He is covered from head to foot in the mess that is News International and sooner rather than later he’ll be held accountable.

Misleading the house is a serious issue.

Not as serious as perverting the course of justice, invasion of privacy, harassment, and the many, many others.

But enough to be a resigning matter. ( I hope so.)

Hackgate keeps on going

It’s surprising that this scandal has kept on going.

The NOTW is no more, bribes (sorry compensations) have been paid to Milly Dowler’s family and many others.  Murdoch junior looks unlikely to follow Rupert into the big seat at News Corp / News International.

Coulson has been forced out of Number 10.

All good stuff and yet here we are waiting in anticipation for this week’s installment of Culture Media and sport committee.

Who would have thought a committee in parliament would be such compelling viewing.

The custard pie in Murdoch’s face wont happen again.

The squirming of James under questioning while saying I know nothing, isn’t the main draw.

The main draw is the ghoulish pleasure we get from watching the NOTW getting its come uppance.

For me I keep expecting a smoking gun to point at Dave-call-me-dave and show him for the liar we all think he is.  How he things we will swallow the ‘I didn’t ask’ ‘Gave him a second chance’ crap about Coulson I do not know.  The summer recess took the heat off of Dave but I expect after another couple of rounds it will start to come back on to him.

However, that said, I doubt Dave would go.  At one point I thought his demise was imminent but alas not.

And so to this week.

Video surveillance is common stuff.  The use of it to smear a lawyer who is involved in a case against them is a step too far.

Don’t give a toss that they spied on Wills et al.  Much more concerned by their attempts to smear a lawyer representing clients whom, it has been proven, had a case against them.  Attack on justice is an attack on us all.

What bothers me is the continued use of surveillance to get material for smears / scoops continued till they closed.

Proving effectively, once and for all just how corrupt and law disregarding the NOTW was.

And these same people had their man at the heart of Government.  And he had no idea it was going on?

One rogue reporter?  Credible?  Is it credible that Dave never asked?

The smelly stuff is about to spray everywhere and I hope that those besmirched do the honorable thing and go.

AS IF THAT WILL HAPPEN.

Hackgate, the Gift that keeps on giving.

Thank you, commons culture, media and sport select committee.

The recall of the forked tongue gang that tried to tell us that it was only Clive and Des that were at it, led to a few revelations.

Crone had to spill the beans and reveal his selective amnesia.  James Murdoch lied, lied and lied again.

He knew and now his underlings have had to say so.  The father and son ‘we didn’t know’ has been scotched.

Silence was bought from Clive Goodman who felt betrayed as he was hung out to dry and played on the ‘for Neville’ trump card.

Caught breaking the law and jailed.  Obviously his dismissal from NOTW was unfair.  They were all at it and he knew it.  They promised him they’d see him all right afterwards.  Take one for the team as it were.

Coulson wanted him brought back after his jail term, but failing that a quarter of a million should have eased the pain of being booted from the bosom of News International.  Or as one of the committee suggested ‘bought his silence’.  Goodman & Mulcaire should just blurt out the whole story and land the rest of their former buddies in it.

Crone & the HR bloke attempted to answer in doublespeak and it backfired under a torrent of very direct questions.  The whole truth may never come out but it has been exposed as a house of cards with lies at its heart.  This mob wouldn’t know the truth if it bit them on the ass.  (oh wait maybe it has)

So James KNEW.  Phone hacking was endemic.  Coulson most certainly knew.

Wait a minute…….

Does that mean perhaps there is a similarity here.  Do you think DAVE knew about Andy Coulson’s involvement in the hacking scandal?

What about Mr Coulson’s rather interesting severance benefits?  When you resign from a post you don’t usually get the benefits Andy got from NI.  Mind you if the financial compensation that Clive Goodman got for summary dismissal is normal at the NOTW then maybe I am being unfair.

One thing is certain, the NOTW was riddled with some rather dishonest individuals who were prepared to do anything for a story.

The select committee and the scandal surrounding #hackgate isn’t going away anytime soon.

I reiterate my thoughts of before the summer recess, this may yet see the end of David Cameron because when the truth comes out he will be damaged and be seen to have lied about what he knew, when he knew it and what exactly the deal was with his mate Andy.

Will the committee recall James?  If they do more fireworks and sleepless nights for those who are implicated.

( BTW Dave that’s you)

I know nothing, I come from Barcelona

I spent all day watching the Home Affairs Select committee and the Culture media and sport select committee.

I am now very well-informed.

There are 174 ways to say, I know nothing.

There are 30 ways to say I’ll get the information to you.

And a great many ways to say a few hundred words to say I know nothing.

The only one missing was ‘Que? I from Barcelona.’

While the Murdoch clan managed to say nothing the Met boys managed to appear like bumbling fools.

On a day where a great many eyes were watching the #hackgate select committees, in the House of commons and elsewhere, announcements most newsworthy were barely being noticed.

Badger Culling, BSF appeals denied and NHS opening up to competition to the tune of £1bn.

So while the pages of tomorrows press are full of pictures and stories of Rupert Murdoch being custard pied and #hackgate suppositions and news, a few things will be sneaking out unannounced like little toxic farts.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-14195808

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-14203396

http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2011/jul/19/nhs-services-open-to-competition

The Government was using the last day of term to get out all sorts of announcements in the hope that if all the bad news came out together some of  it will be missed.  In some respects the Coalition will be thankful to Murdoch and #hackgate for giving them some cover.  Liam Fox got a few things out yesterday too.

Hackgate might account for the PM but it wont be tomorrow.  It might just be Ed Llewellyn that takes a fall after being dropped in it by Yates of the yard.  Summer Recess has come at the right time to take the heat out of hackgate and Dave will manage to soldier on for a while.

(3/1 to go by the end of 2011 at paddy power).

 

If Not Dave then who?

I have been called insane, mad, deluded and many other unprintable names recently because I think David Cameron is on his way.  They may, indeed, be right that my political antennae need retuned or I need to stop eating the mushrooms growing in the woods.

I think Dave will go.  Not because #Hackgate happened to blow up on his watch, not because he hired Andy Coulson (against some advice and on advice of others) but because when it all kicked off he denied ever having asked Andy (his friend to whom he gave a second chance) if he knew about the hacking.

The ‘I didn’t ask’ defence isn’t credible given the vast array of sources saying they told PM & his staff that Andy Coulson was implicated.  This wasn’t a minor question to be avoided, and it strikes at the core of the Prime minister’s judgement and integrity.

If he didn’t ask he was incompetent and if he did ask and subsequently denied it; he is complicit.

The PM will have to continue to deny that he knew, if he changes tack now he implicates himself.

When the questioning of Coulson, Brooks and many others starts to bite them a deal will let it all out.  If he knew, it will come out in the wash.  All it will take is someone saving their skin or a memo with the Prime ministers fingerprints all over it.

The close links with News International may look bad but that won’t be enough. His poor judgement over Coulson wont be enough, all those around him resigning and getting sacked wont be enough.  After all Labour can be accused of very similair things.

It will be the lie that sinks David Cameron.

It smacks of Bill Clinton’s ‘I did not have sexual relations with that woman.’  unless you count……

So I think he’s going.

Who then for the conservatives?  They will not want another election (neither do Labour if we have any sense) so the coalition will survive because the LD support is too low to see them jump from the coalition.  They will, of course, get to flex their muscles over press reform and rightly so (they have been calling for it for years).

My best to lead the Tories Post David Cameron will be either William Hague (for whom last time was too soon) or David Davies (near miss in the run off with David Cameron).

The rest are just not likely.  Gidders will be damned by association (and economy), May (not senior enough), IDS (nuff said), Landsley (mess of NHS no chance), Gove (about to lose role over 60k retainer from News international), Hammond (bombardier about to blow his hands off).  Liam Fox (outside bet as he is usually not too bad but has just slashed the army so perhaps not).  Ken Clarke (not very likely after sentencing mess).  Redwood?

Hague or Davies it is then.

Perhaps Ed might manage to beat either of these.

BskyB debate – enter Gordon Brown MP

Well, a debate where they are all in agreement would not at once seem to offer much in the way of entertainment.  However how wrong could I have been.

Ex PM Gordon Brown (who had already waded in to the NOTW (#Hackgate) row by spilling his own beans about News International and how they hacked/blagged/ obtained his and his son Fraser’s information.

I can honestly say that he was back to his best.  Powerful and articulate and not hampered by the burden of being PM.  He cracked jokes that were funny (not uncomfortable) and his smiles weren’t forced or like a rictus grin.  Standing there in the third row of a crowded commons towering above those around him, he looked like the big clunking Labour fist that Tony Blair described him as.

The Government benches were filled too but were missing their Leader.  The PM decided he had better things to do than answer any questions that might embarass him further.

PMQ’s and a clash with Ed Miliband over Coulson, a statement to the house about enquiries and he needed a wee lie down.  I suppose it was too much to hope that he might take part in an open debate where there was no bell or limit to the questions that might be asked.

Add to that the Guardian editor stated that the PM’s answers during PMQ’s were misleading.  So no real surprise that a commons baying for blood wouldn’t see the PM, just his patsy Jeremy Hunt.

There was some good stuff from Ed Miliband, Chris Bryant and others but the star of the show was Gordon Brown.

BskyB deal may be dead for the moment, and a judicial review making the issue go away for a while but Dave cannot rest easy.  His jacket is most definately on a shaky peg.

One thing is for certain, the PM is mired in #NOTW muck and his hope that a judicial review would embarass Labour into backing off (after all we were in Govt for 13 years) looks like a failed strategy.  Gordon is more than happy to defend his record.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-14144968

I hope that this will see the return to the house of Gordon Brown, a true political colossus, his input and gravitas is very much missed.

I am so glad I watched it now, truly one of the best speeches / debates in a coons age.

This #hackgate gets more like #watergate everyday.  see you later Dave.

 

The conversation Dave didn’t have and the one he doesn’t want

Sticking his fingers in his ears and singing ‘lalala’ is the image I have of David Cameron in the kitchen at a ‘Chipping Norton set’ dinner party and going out of the room as soon as anyone mentions ‘Andy, phone and Hacking’ in the same sentence.
OK I know I am being ridiculous but the PM started it.

There is no way that the questions were never asked of Andy & Rebekah about the bad apple Mulcaire in the informal environment they associate in.

And it beggars belief to suggest that his ‘friend’ Andy never, ever mentioned it to David Cameron.  And that Dave never asked over a beer or what have you.

‘Don’t ask, Don’t Tell’ looking a poor idea now.
David Cameron is an intelligent, articulate man and if he didn’t ask (for plausible deniability in the future) it was because the facts were self-evident. He didn’t ask because they all knew, they knew the hacking was widespread and it was just part of the business.
It is this failure to discuss and his closeness to these two News International bigwigs that will cause dave the most difficulty and damage over this.

When it creeps out (after weeks of revelations and scandals) that David Cameron did ask and was told by Andy Coulson (who will cop a deal) about the systematic law breaking, it is then that his position becomes untenable.

Punting the BskyB deal to the competition commission buys Dave some time to spread the mud among all the parties but it will come out in the end that he knew. After that, everything else pales into insignificance.
His defending of Coulson and slow reactions in this crisis show him as ineffectual and his press conference body language screamed ‘liar liar pants on fire.’
I didn’t have this conversation with Andy Coulson is beginning to sound like ‘I did not have sexual relations with that woman.’

So much for the conversation he never had. 😉

Now for the one he doesn’t want.

It goes a little like this. A meeting set up by some grey suited elder statesmen within the Conservative party to discuss the current situation with the PM. Of course a few of these old boys are none too impressed with the Boy Cameron, and still do not understand how on earth he couldn’t win a majority.

After all it was against an unpopular government on its knees, a massive recession, buckets of Ashcroft money and a poor Labour campaign bereft of money.
They, like the country, and just not sure about Dave. And then of course he snuggled up to the enemy Clegg.

‘Prime minister, for the good of the party, you should think about stepping down.’  Words made of lead that David Cameron will live in dread of hearing.

After all he is either complicit (in which case he has to go) or incompetent (in which case he has to go).

He will hear them unless something worse comes along and diverts the heat off of his complicity over #hackgate.

After all, a new bum in the PM’s seat wont trigger a general election merely a change at the helm. Preferably one who isn’t entirely mired in News International muck.

While the Libdems are in single figures they will stick with the coalition to the death, however if they start to regain ground due to the liability of Dave and his little chums, a change will be in the offing.

Will the PM have to go?  I think he will but it will take a few more smoking guns with his fingerprints on them before it is certain.